Football tournaments usually follow a predictable pattern, with a handful of elite nations cruising through the early stages. The 2026 tournament has broken that tradition completely, leaving fans and pundits genuinely baffled by what’s happening on the pitch. Form guides are out of date, and smaller nations are proving they can stand toe-to-toe with the global giants. Here’s why the old rulebooks no longer apply.
How the Expanded Format Creates Chaos
The biggest shift comes down to pure numbers. With the expansion to 48 teams, we now have 12 groups instead of the previous eight. This structural change introduces a brand new round of 32, which alters how managers approach their early fixtures. Instead of pacing themselves for the knockouts, teams have to fight from the opening whistle to secure their place.
Because of this setup, the qualification threshold is unusually low. Just three points could be enough for some third-placed sides to advance, since the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed finishers go through.
With bookmakers struggling to model 12 groups and a new round of 32, prices are moving game by game, and the latest betting offers are often the best place to look when the numbers haven’t settled yet. This mathematical reality keeps almost every team alive until the final whistle of their last group match, and it forces even the top sides to keep attacking rather than rest key players.
Early Shocks Turn Form Guides Upside Down
A few years ago, results like these would have looked impossible. Cape Verde, World Cup debutants, held European champions Spain to a 0-0 draw in Atlanta on 15 June. Spain racked up 27 shots and 7 on target but couldn’t beat 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, who became the story of the tournament’s opening week after his seven-save display.
Two days later, DR Congo held Portugal to a 1-1 draw in Houston, with Yoane Wissa cancelling out João Neves’s early header and Cristiano Ronaldo failing to convert two half-chances on his record-equalling sixth World Cup appearance.
The shocks have continued through the second round of group matches. Cape Verde followed up their Spain result with a 2-2 draw against two-time champions Uruguay, with Kevin Pina scoring the country’s first ever World Cup goal. Japan thumped Tunisia 4-0 to underline their status as genuine dark horses. The Netherlands dismantled Sweden 5-1. And Messi broke the all-time World Cup scoring record with his 17th and 18th tournament goals, while Haaland and Mbappe both scored braces to keep the Golden Boot race alive. Even on the days the big names deliver, the margins are tight and the underdogs keep pushing.
And these aren’t one-offs. Debutant nations are making life difficult for established sides by playing with extreme defensive discipline and high energy. They don’t show fear against the world’s best, and they’re using physical fitness to close the technical gap. Heavy favourites can no longer rely on reputation to pick up three points. They have to earn every win, often grinding them out late on.
Why Squad Depth Matters More Than Ever
Winning the trophy now requires eight matches instead of seven. That extra fixture places a huge physical burden on players already coming off a long domestic season. Favourites face a more gruelling path to the final, which raises the risk of injuries and fatigue. Managers can’t rely on the same starting eleven every game without risking exhaustion.
You can see the impact in the late stages of matches. Look at England’s 4-2 win over Croatia in Dallas, where the score was already 2-2 at the break after Martin Baturina and Petar Musa twice pegged back Harry Kane’s brace.
Tuchel’s side only pulled clear in the second half through Jude Bellingham and a late Marcus Rashford finish, proving that even on a winning afternoon, control is hard to come by in this tournament. Squad depth will ultimately decide who survives, as teams with stronger benches hold a clear advantage.
To Sum Up
This tournament shows that international football has entered a far more competitive era. Historical precedent and official world rankings mean less than they used to. When tactical discipline matches star power, any team can take a result on its day. The old giants have to adapt to this new environment if they want to bring silverware home.
Pundits leaning on old patterns are being proved wrong week after week. The expanded format and the rising standards of smaller nations have turned this World Cup into a genuine test for the favourites. Plenty of drama and unexpected twists are still to come before the trophy is finally lifted at MetLife on 19 July.
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